Friday, April 19, 2013

Learn How Beta And Volatility Impact Your Investment Portfolio

Beta and VolatalityIt goes without saying that investing in growth stocks can be “risky” or “volatile”, but how does one measure these terms? Such a measure would immensely help an investor quantify his risk to determine whether or not he could stomach the swings of a particular growth stock. Luckily for you, there is such a tool, and it is known as “beta”. It will allow you to sleep at night and still own aggressive growth stocks.

Beta expresses the volatility of a security in relation to the market as a whole.

The beta of any individual security is measured against the market and is therefore viewed in comparison to 1.

Essentially, it is a measure of sensitivity to market changes by a stock. This means that the stock can be assessed for risk in comparison to the market and therefore the national economy.

If a security has a beta of exactly 1, the moves of the market, both up and down, are reflected exactly by the security. By definition, this is a very rare occurrence. It is, however, most likely to occur amongst the very largest companies since any move in price that they have has the biggest impact on the index. Equally, the index moving can have a big impact on their quoted price.

Should a company have a beta of more than 1, the price of the security is more volatile than the market. The movements of the company price exaggerate those of the market. Therefore, if the market rises, the company share price will rise faster. If the market falls, the share price will fall faster.

Less than 1 tells us that the price of a security moves less than the market but in the same overall direction. The security is therefore more stable in price than the overall market.

All this means that beta can provide a relative measure of risk compared to an index, a sector or a benchmark. It is calculated using monthly price movements over the preceding 36 months.
Astute readers will recognize that this offers the potential - in theory at least if not always in practice - to balance a portfolio by holding companies that behave in opposing ways to those of the stock market as a whole.

Even more astute readers will recognize a further truth... Measurements such as beta enable the risk to be balanced in a portfolio, but that is a focus on capital preservation. For many investors - both private and professional - the aim is to do much more than preserve capital. Therefore, being able to select stocks with growth potential might be more important than risk mitigation.

As is rightly asked, if I manage your portfolio correctly and outperform our chosen index but the fund still loses money, is that acceptable?
This is, after all, one of the central precepts of the fund management industry - benchmarking against a relevant index. But, if the index falls by 20% in a calendar year and a fund that is compared against it only falls by 15% in the same time period, is that fund really a success? Losing money is still losing money, no matter how things compare when using beta to help analyse returns.

It is possibly for these reasons that the hedge fund industry has seen such rapid growth.Wealthy Clients that understood that they wanted to make an actual profit every year preferred the concept of alpha and an absolute return.

Another possibly interesting angle for readers to think about is the way in which terms such as volatility and risk impact their entire finances and net worth, rather than just their stock portfolio. This is a topic which has been explored in some depth by author Robert Frank in his book The High-Beta Rich, where he looks at the impact that borrowing has had on the finances of America's richest people.

He certainly finds some interesting correlations between a high value 'paper' net worth (probably held in stocks, or perhaps the ownership of one business) and the risks taken on when the owners of these assets borrow large amounts of money against these assets to live the lifestyle that they feel they deserve. The risk is obviously that the value of their asset could fall leaving them with large debts and minimal security. If nothing else, such a book makes the reader think carefully about the impact of borrowing to fund lifestyle needs.